Under the Trump administration, US airstrikes are killing more civilians

Smoke from an airstrike rises in the background as a man flees during fighting between Iraqi special forces and IS militants in Mosul, Iraq, on May 17, 2017.
AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo

When President Donald Trump took office in January, it was unclear whether the bombast from his campaign would translate into an aggressive new strategy against terrorism. At campaign rallies he pledged to “bomb the hell” out of the Islamic State. He openly mused about killing the families of terrorists, a blatant violation of the Geneva Conventions, which prohibits violence against noncombatants.

Ten months into his presidency, a clearer picture is emerging. The data indicate several alarming trends.

According to research from the nonprofit monitoring group Airwars, the first seven months of the Trump administration have already resulted in more civilian deaths than under the entirety of the Obama administration. Airwars reports that under Obama’s leadership, the fight against IS led to approximately 2,300 to 3,400 civilian deaths. Through the first seven months of the Trump administration, they estimate that coalition air strikes have killed between 2,800 and 4,500 civilians.

Researchers also point to another stunning trend – the “frequent killing of entire families in likely coalition airstrikes.” In May, for example, such actions led to the deaths of at least 57 women and 52 children in Iraq and Syria.

The vast increase in civilian deaths is not limited to the anti-IS campaign. In Afghanistan, the U.N. reports a 67 percent increase in civilian deaths from U.S. airstrikes in the first six months of 2017 compared to the first half of 2016.

The key question is: Why? Are these increases due to a change in leadership?

Delegating war to the military

Experts offer several explanations.

One holds that Trump’s “total authorization” for the military to run wars in Afghanistan and against IS has loosened Obama-era restrictions and increased military commanders’ risk tolerance. Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations notes: “Those closer to the fight are more likely to call in lethal force and are less likely to follow a value-based approach.”

In other words, an intense focus on destroying IS elements may be overriding the competing priority of protecting civilians. Because Trump has scaled back civilian oversight and delegated authority to colonels rather than one-star generals, the likely result is higher casualties.

Urban battlefield?

A second explanation points to the changing nature of the counter-IS campaign. The Pentagon contends that the rise in casualties is “attributable to the change in location” of battlefield operations towards more densely populated urban environments like Mosul and Raqqa.

This is a partial truth. While urban warfare has increased, Trump’s team has substantially escalated air strikes and bombings. According to CENTCOM data, the military has already used 20 percent more missiles and bombs in combined air operations in 2017 than in all of 2016. One notable airstrike in March, for example, killed 105 Iraqi civilians when U.S. forces dropped a 500-pound bomb in order to take out two snipers in Mosul. In fact, a Human Rights Watch analysis of bomb craters in West Mosul estimates that U.S. coalition forces are routinely using larger and less precise bombs – weighing between 500 and 1,000 pounds – than in prior operations. Finally, the urban battlefield explanation also does not account for increased civilian deaths in Afghanistan from airstrikes, where the environment has remained static for several years.

Pressure from the president

A third explanation of higher civilian casualties is that aggressive rhetoric from the president is inadvertently pressuring the military to take more risks and to deprioritize protecting civilians.

As former Assistant Secretary of State Tom Malinowski observes: “If your leaders are emphasizing the high value of Raqqa and Mosul, while saying less about the strategic and moral risks of hurting civilians, it’s going to affect your judgment.” Words matter, especially coming from the commander-in-chief. In the face of such aggressive rhetoric, it should not come as a surprise that military officers feel encouraged – if not indirectly pressured – to take greater risks.

Unfortunately, the increased trend of civilian casualties is unlikely to diminish. In fact, signs abound that the White House is developing a new set of policies and procedures that will authorize more sweeping discretion to the military. In September, The New York Times reported that White House officials were proposing two major rules changes. First, they would expand the scope of “kill missions” and allow for the targeting of lower-level terrorists in addition to high value targets. Second – and more notably – they would suspend high-level vetting of potential drone attacks and raids.

These changes represent a sharp about-face. The Obama administration carefully crafted a deliberate set of rules guiding the use of force. In 2013, Obama released the Presidential Policy Guidance for Approving Direct Action Against Terrorist Targets (PPG), which created specific rules for determining when the use of force against terrorists was legally justified.

Then, in 2016, Obama issued an executive order on civilian harm that established heightened standards to minimize civilian casualties from military actions, and required the public release of information pertaining to strikes against terrorist targets.

While the latest actions from the Trump administration stop short of reversing Obama-era restraints, they are unsettling steps in the opposite direction. For example, it appears for now that the White House will preserve the “near certainty” standard, which requires commanders to have near certainty that a potential strike will not impact civilians. But this could change over time.

One senior official quoted in The New York Times article bluntly asserts that the latest changes are intended to make much of the “bureaucracy” created by the Obama administration rules “disappear.” As the White House dissolves the existing bureaucracy and relinquishes civilian oversight, Trump is embarking on a slippery slope that will potentially lead to major diminutions of civilian protection.

The current battle to take the Syrian city of Raqqa is emblematic of the stakes at hand. The U.S. is leading a punishing air war to soften IS defenses. In August, U.S. forces dropped 5,775 bombs and missiles onto the city. For context, this represented 10 times more munitions than the U.S. used for the whole of Afghanistan in the same month and year. The resulting civilian toll has been gruesome. At least 433 civilians likely died in Raqqa due to the August bombings, more than double the previous month’s total. Since the assault on Raqqa commenced on June 6, more than 1,000 civilians have been reported killed.

U.N. human rights chief Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein cautions that the intense bombardment has left civilians caught between IS’s monstrosities and the fierce battle to defeat it. Zeid insists that “civilians must not be sacrificed for the sake of rapid military victories.”

Trump would be wise to heed this warning. Even as U.S. forces continue to turn the tide on IS, the trail of destruction left in the campaign’s wake is unsettling. The specter of massive civilian casualties will remain a rallying point for new terrorist organizations long after anti-IS operations conclude.

Steven Feldstein, Frank and Bethine Church Chair of Public Affairs & Associate Professor, School of Public Service, Boise State University

This article was originally published on The Conversation.

President Zuma loses bid to dodge 783 charges. But will he have the last laugh?

South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal has upheld a High Court Decision to reinstate almost 800 criminal charges against President Zuma.
GCIS

South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal has dismissed President Jacob Zuma’s and the National Prosecuting Authority’s appeal against an earlier decision by the North Gauteng High Court that a decision to dismiss 783 charges against Zuma in 2009 was irrational. Then, Zuma had claimed that the charges against him were part of a political conspiracy to prevent him from becoming president. But the North Gauteng High Court, in a case brought by the opposition Democratic Alliance, ruled last April that the charges of corruption, money laundering and racketeering against Zuma should be reinstated. The Conversation Africa’s Politics and Society Editor Thabo Leshilo spoke to constitutional expert law Pierre de Vos about the latest decision.

What are the implications of the judgment?

The judgment means that the original decision by the North Gauteng High Court to charge President Zuma stands and – in the absence of another legal move – the National Prosecuting Authority is legally obliged to implement it.

This means Zuma will be prosecuted unless Shaun Abrahams, the national director of public prosecutions, decides again to drop the charges (but on different legal grounds). The judgment also contains scathing criticism of the National Prosecuting Authority and its senior leadership.

It raises questions about the integrity of senior National Prosecuting Authority leaders and of the independence and impartiality of the prosecutions body. The judgment also notes that it was illegal for Zuma’s legal team to obtain and share the intercepted communications – the so called spy tapes – which raises questions about why no one (including Zuma’s lawyer, Roger Hulley) was ever charged for breach of the law.

What happens now?

Zuma’s lawyers will probably make another submission to Abrahams to argue that the charges must be dropped. This may include arguments that too much time has passed since the alleged crimes were committed or that new evidence has come to light that raises questions on whether the NPA has a winnable case against the President.

The Appeals Court left open whether Abrahams has the legal power to review a decision by the National Director of Public Prosecutions or not. If Abrahams does have this power, and if he again drops the charges, it will probably be the end of the matter.

If the charges are not dropped, the NPA will proceed with the prosecution, at which point Zuma’s lawyers will almost certainly approach the court to ask for a permanent stay of prosecution. It is not practically possible for Zuma to appeal to the Constitutional Court as his lawyers already conceded before the Supreme Court of Appeal that the decision to drop the charges was invalid.

What are Zuma’s options?

As the Supreme Court of Appeal points out in its judgment, Zuma and his lawyers have done everything in their power to prevent a situation where the president would have his day in court and would have to answer to the charges levelled against him.

This is why the president and his lawyers will continue to try to stop the prosecution by submitting new arguments to the National Prosecuting Authority on why the charges should be dropped. And, if that does not work, to try and convince the court that his prosecution must be stopped permanently because for some or other reason he could not receive a fair trial.

Can a sitting president be put on trial? Does South Africa have a precedent for it?

South Africa’s sitting president can be charged. There is no provision in the country’s constitution – or in ordinary legislation – that stands in the way of this happening.

The South African parliament could pass a law that changes this and protects a sitting president from criminal liability. But this wouldn’t get very far as such a law would be unconstitutional. It would be breach of the Rule of Law as developed by the South African Constitutional Court and it would also be in breach of section 9(1) of the Constitution which states that:

Everyone is equal before the law and has the right to equal protection and benefit of the law.

No sitting president has ever been charged with a criminal offence in South Africa. President Nelson Mandela was required to testify in a civil (as opposed to a criminal) case, after which the Constitutional Court imposed limits on when a sitting president would be required to testify in a civil case.

It would be unprecedented for a sitting president to face criminal charges and be prosecuted.

Pierre de Vos, Claude Leon Foundation Chair in Constitutional Governance, University of Cape Town

This article was originally published on The Conversation.

South Africa needs to revamp its new public transport system

KIM LUDBROOK/EAP

Over the past eight years the South African government has spent more than 130 billion rand on public transport projects in the country’s main cities. The projects included the refurbishment of rail services and the establishment of a new rapid rail and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems.

This is a lot of money by any standards. As a percentage of gross geographic product, South African cities devote about twice as much money to transport as other developing countries, and as much as four times more than some regions of the world.

The country should by now be celebrating the success of this investment. But sustaining the systems, especially the BRT systems, is proving to be difficult.

Even high ranking government officials have expressed doubts about the way things are going. The MEC for transport in Gauteng province, Ismail Vadi, recently asked whether government was getting value for money from the BRT systems. His concerns have been echoed by Joe Maswanganyi, the national minister of transport.

Maswanganyi suggested that it was time to rethink and redesign the systems to “stop draining money from the fiscus”. The BRT has been called a “mammoth flop” and “a white elephant” in some media.

Those are exaggerations. But there are serious problems with the BRT.

Fixing them must focus on reducing costs and growing income. Running costs should automatically decline as the system matures. But to raise revenue levels, BRT must become better integrated with housing and other transport services so that more people use them and help pay for them. In particular, the BRT should work with minibus-taxis to help widen the net of BRT usage. The country needs better planning and funding to make this happen.

Benefits and costs of BRT

BRT systems represent a significant improvement compared to traditional metro transport systems. They use dedicated lanes and stations, modern buses, and smartcard payment systems to speed up public transport and give passengers a better quality service.

This comes at a price. BRT ticket prices are typically higher than Metrorail but are set to be competitive with the minibus-taxi offering.

South Africa’s BRT systems are currently transporting more than 120,000 passengers (one-way trips) every day. Surveys show that passengers generally prefer the comfort and speed of BRT to other modes like minibus-taxis. So, based on passenger numbers alone, BRT is not a failure.

Passengers walk from the Johannesburg Bus Rapid Transit system in Johannesburg. The system is proving to be unsustainably expensive for the South African government.
KIM LUDBROOK/EAP

But the BRT systems in the country’s main cities, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Tshwane, are performing worse financially than was expected.

Between 2005 and 2016, a total of about R35.7 billion was allocated for the planning, design and construction of integrated public transport networks countrywide. Costs are pushed up by national government’s commitment to bring minibus-taxi operators into the system in such a way that they are no worse off than before.

This was partly driven by political pressure from taxi organisations, and partly to help bring an upgraded taxi industry into the formal transport network.

Despite these extra costs, South Africa’s spending on BRT systems is, per kilometre of busway, on par with many systems in Latin America and Asia. This suggests that the country has not overspent on infrastructure.

The problem is that fewer people than forecast are using the systems. Fare revenues are lower than expected.

Take Rea Vaya, the BRT in the main economic hub of Johannesburg, as an example. Demand grew by about 6% a year on average in the five years to 2016.

In 2016 Rea Vaya catered for about 50 000 passenger trips a day. This equates to about 1 100 daily boardings per kilometre of busway, but it’s far less than the average of 8 000 for comparable systems in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

The productivity of each bus is low. Travel distances are long because of apartheid spatial planning and low densities. Seat turnover along the route is low and most passengers use the buses at peak times. The result is that Johannesburg and Cape Town have had to subsidise their BRT systems much more than planned.

Subsidy expectations came from using some Latin American cities, which operate with zero subsidy, as a benchmark. Planners expected fare revenues to cover direct operating costs. For Rea Vaya, the direct cost recovery ratio is only about 30% and for Cape Town’s MyCiTi just over 40%.

Subsidies in itself is not the problem. Subsidies for public transport are widely accepted as a way of making cities work better and protecting the environment.

The issue is that South Africa’s BRT subsidies are too high and haven’t produced the desired results. One senses from the minister’s comments that government’s appetite for subsidising what are seen as underperforming systems is waning. Unless the entire public transport system makes a better impact, the programme is likely to stall.

What can be done

Cities have relatively little room for growing revenues by raising fares. Recent research has shown that BRT demand in the Gauteng cities of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane is very sensitive to fares. Higher fares would also exclude the poorest passengers, which would not help to make the transport system more equitable.

The solution is to improve passenger numbers by bringing BRT closer to where people live, work and play. South African cities have lower population densities than cities in Latin America. The demand for transport in South Africa is lower per square kilometre.

One way to bring people and BRT closer together is to develop housing along transport routes. This is already happening to a limited extent in Johannesburg’s Corridors of Freedom initiative. Mixed land use should also improve the productivity of buses and infrastructure.

Precincts served by BRT should also be made easier for pedestrians to use and more attractive to investors.

Bringing quality public transport within reach of more people requires more than just BRT. Recent studies show that existing and potential BRT users in Johannesburg value frequent, easily accessible transport and low fares more than short travel times. They want short walks to public transport. In other words, they want what minibus-taxis are already providing.

Bringing upgraded minibus-taxis into the formal network could greatly expand the number of people benefiting from investment in public transport.

South Africa should be putting more energy into integrating BRTs better with other public transport systems, including municipal buses, minibus-taxis and e-hail services like Uber. It should be working towards common cashless fare systems and easy transfers. Extending the special BRT corridors could follow at a slower pace.

Lastly, cities will have to find ways to raise additional revenues for public transport. These might include charging for the use and parking of cars in congested areas, or partnering with property developers to help build transport interchanges as commercial ventures. Pulling this off will require a wider conversation around whether South Africa wants the benefits of better public transport, and how it will pay for that.

The expansion and operation of bus rapid transit systems in South African municipalities can’t continue as it is. Government may withdraw its financial support unless cities can do three things: reduce costs, increase revenues and make the system work for more people.

Christo Venter, Associate Professor in Transport Engineering, University of Pretoria and Gary Hayes, PhD Candidate in Transportation Planning, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research

This article was originally published on The Conversation.

Fears of more school disruptions in Limpopo

Threats of another shutdown in Vuwani as matric exams near

By Sune Payne
12 October 2017

The visitors’ entrance to the Parliament of South Africa. Photo: Ashraf Hendricks

A top-level Committee meeting at Parliament on Tuesday heard that another shutdown could happen soon again in the volatile region of Vuwani, Limpopo.

Members raised concerns about the implications for learners, especially matriculants who are nearing the start of their final examinations. Vuwani has 1,579 matriculants. Matric learners have fewer than 20 days until the start of final examinations.

The Portfolio Committee on Basic Education had called a joint meeting with the Departments of Basic Education, Safety and Security, Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA) and Intelligence to discuss a status report on protests in Vuwani

Sporadic protests have been ongoing since 2016 when residents shut down the area and held protests against plans to incorporate Vuwani into the Lim345 municipality. Protesters have made it clear that they wish to remain part of the Makhado municipality.

Minister for Basic Education, Angie Motshekga, said protests in Vuwani were about municipal demarcation and had nothing to do with education. But because of the implications for learners, the Department would do its best to accommodate learners who have missed school due to the unrest, she said.

Also at the meeting was COGTA Minister Des van Rooyen, who serves as Chairperson of the joint Inter Ministerial Task team on the Vuwani unrest set up by President Jacob Zuma.

Van Rooyen agreed that the root cause of the ongoing Vuwani protests is demarcation and that the Demarcation Act of 1998 needs to be reviewed.

However, the Committee’s immediate concern was the effect that further violence would have on schooling, which has been disrupted repeatedly by community protests. Shortly before last year’s matriculation exams, a number of schools in the area were torched.

Beauty Mutheiwana, head of the Limpopo Department of Education, said plans were in place for learners to make up the time they had missed following the latest protests.

Matric learners have already missed 19 days of trial examinations, but the province had a plan to make them up and complete trial examinations between 9 and 20 October, said Mutheiwana.
The DA’s Ian Ollis questioned how learners would be able to prepare for their final exams if the trial exams ended on the 20th, and final examinations are due to start on the 24th.

Mutheiwana told the committee that a Spring School had been held for affected Vuwani learners and there will be Saturday schools throughout October.

Department of Basic Education Director General Mathanzima Mweli told the committee, “It is a bit difficult, but that is the situation we find ourselves in.”

Major General Zeph Mkhwanazi, the head of Public Order Policing (POP), told the committee that “deploying national police, especially for examinations” would be looked into.

He responded to MPs concerns about safety by confirming that the local police and POP officials are monitoring the situation. In its presentation, the police (SAPS) confirmed that four suspects were arrested during the shutdown this year. SAPS conceded that if a solution was not found to address the demarcation issue in Vuwani, the threat remained of further teaching and learning disruptions which would affect final examinations.

Although there were no incidents of schools being burnt during the most recent Vuwani protests in September, MPs recalled that 29 schools were burnt during last year’s unrest and wanted to know what SAPS was doing to ensure this did not reoccur.

The Committee also considered the report and recommendations of the South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC), which conducted its own investigation. Motshekga agreed to implement its findings where possible.

Produced for GroundUp by Notes from the House.

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Published originally on GroundUp .

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Freak storm in Gauteng leaves residents without electricity, water and toilets

I am just glad to be alive, says 70-year-old

By Ihsaan Haffejee
11 October 2017

A young boy stands in the remains of a home after the freak storm hit Mayibuye near Krugersdorp, west of Johannesburg. Photo: Ihsaan Haffejee

When fierce winds started to lift the roof of her home, Isabella Dikupe grabbed her two children and fled. “We ran out of the house into the open field across the road and waited out in the open until it was over,” said Dikupe.

She made it out just in time. Seconds later the roof was ripped off by the wind. “I just saw huge sheets of metal flying in the air like they were paper. It was terrifying,” she said.

The roof of Isabella Dikupe’s home was ripped off by fierce winds in the storm that hit Mayibuye near Krugersdorp. Photo: Ihsaan Haffejee

Dikupe, of Mayibuye near Krugersdorp, was among hundreds of people affected by the freak storm that hit Gauteng on Monday, killing one person. Homes, shopping malls, hospitals and schools were severely damaged on the West Rand.

Jonas Pholo, Dikupe’s neighbour, said it was a miracle that no one on the property was hurt or killed. “Just look at this,” he said pointing to a pile of rubble. “There used to be a house here. Luckily, the people who live here were at work when the storm hit.”

“Now my worry is that we have no electricity and the water supply has also been affected. These massive trees were uprooted and landed on the power lines, and I think some of the water pipes have been damaged as well,” said Pholo.

Stranded without electricity, the residents collected firewood from the trees that had been blown over.

Elizabeth Tsotsete, who is 70 years old, was forced to spend Monday night outside as her roof was blown off during the storm. Photo: Ihsaan Haffejee

Elizabeth Tsotsete also lost the roof of her home. The 70-year-old spent the night out in the open and kept warm by making a small fire. “I am just glad to be alive … My house can be repaired and my things can be replaced, but a life can never be replaced,” said Tsotsete. A neighbour has offered his garage to her as temporary accommodation.

Patricia Mariben shows the remains of her outside toilet. Running water and sanitation has become a problem for a number of residents. Photo: Ihsaan Haffejee

Several residents said their outside toilets were destroyed, leaving them without proper sanitation.
Twenty-year-old Griffis Seokwang hid under some furniture during the storm. “I was so relieved when it was all over. So happy to have not been killed. But later that night I had difficulties falling asleep,” said Seokwang.

Laerskool Protearif in Krugersdorp was extensively damaged and has had to be closed. Photo: Ihsaan Haffejee

Laerskool Protearif in Mayibuye suffered extensive damage. MEC for Education Panyaza Lesufi said the school would have to be closed for the rest of the school year. “We have asked parents to accommodate our interim arrangement which is to relocate these learners to two schools nearby in the area.”
Lesufi said other schools were also affected in Muldersdrift and Ekurhuleni.

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Published originally on GroundUp .

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