South Africa's ruling ANC can no longer count on union ally to win elections

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa addressing the 13th Cosatu conference.
Sowetan/Thulani Mbele

South Africa’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), may have to fight next year’s general election without hundreds of thousands of votes which its trade union ally has delivered in the past. This isn’t because its alliance partner won’t organise votes for the ANC but because it can’t.

The ANC’s union ally, the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu), held its conference recently. In a now familiar ritual, it suggested it might not support the ANC next year. It then declared it would – but would expect policy concessions in exchange for support.

No-one except a few reporters looking for material took this seriously. Cosatu regularly insists that its support for the ANC is conditional on the governing party adopting union-friendly policies. But, having stamped its foot, it always supports the ANC. This was so when the ANC was run by former President Jacob Zuma, who many in Cosatu opposed . It’s likely to be even more so now that it is led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, a former Cosatu unionist for whom it campaigned at last year’s ANC conference, and who received a rousing welcome when he addressed the latest conference.

A useful past

Union support at election time has, since the end of apartheid in 1994, been a huge asset for the ANC.

For some years after democracy’s advent, unions were the most organised force in South Africa. Cosatu, as the largest union federation, would use its organisation to mobilise its members – over 2 million at its peak – and their families to support the ANC. No one is sure how many votes it got out for the ANC but it may well have run into millions. In theory, Cosatu backing it next year means that the ANC can rely on those votes again.

Again in theory, this would not only help the ANC to a comfortable majority. It would cement the implied bargain which has governed relations between the ANC and Cosatu since 1994. Its terms are that Cosatu would, despite complaining, allow the ANC to set economic policy as long as the ANC allowed it a veto over labour law changes. Cosatu would also continue campaigning for the ANC as long as the implied bargain held firm. A byproduct was that some Cosatu leaders would end up in parliament and government on the ANC ticket.

But in practice, both the votes which Cosatu mobilised and the implied bargain are in danger.

A deeper malaise

On the first score, Cosatu is no longer the organisational hub it was when it mobilised the ANC vote. Its membership has dropped to 1.6 million.

Part of the reason is that it expelled its biggest union, the National Union of Metalworkers of SA, which has over 300 000 members. This prompted other splits and the formation of a rival Federation of SA Trade Unions, which has cost Cosatu members. Another reason is the constant loss of jobs in the smokestack industries which used to be Cosatu’s stronghold.

But the membership loss is also a symptom of a deeper malaise. The past few years have seen a weakening of the union movement as the gap between leaders and members has widened, and unions’ ability to mobilise members has declined.

The weakening of the union movement also reflects the country’s economic growth path: the gap between insiders who can enjoy the economy’s benefit and outsiders who can’t has remained. Union leaders have been absorbed into the insiders, leaving their members outside.

This doesn’t mean the end of strike action. Union members feel the economic pinch and so they need wage increases. They still enjoy the power to down tools to push for them. But it does mean the virtual collapse of unions’ ability to mobilise members behind campaigns. A general strike called by Cosatu in 2017 to protest against an unpopular ANC leadership was a flop as union members ignored the call.

Inevitably, Cosatu’s ability to mobilise voters on the ANC’s behalf has also declined. This must have been a factor in the ANC’s electoral setback in 2014 in Gauteng, the economy’s heartland, and in its countrywide decline in the 2016 local elections.

It may well mean that, while Ramaphosa is far more popular among voters than Zuma, the ANC will not reap as many rewards at the polls from the change of leadership as it expected. It may also mean that, since the ANC has no source of organisation which can replace Cosatu, it may never be able to recover much of the electoral ground it has lost and may face continued decline once the post-Zuma effect wears off. Cosatu’s decline could change South Africa’s electoral map.

Reduced bargaining power

So, while the national debate often assumes that unions are no longer politically important, Cosatu’s decline may be exerting a major impact on politics by making it much harder for the ANC to retain support.

If this is bad news for the ANC, it may signal further declines in Cosatu’s influence. While its alliance with the ANC is partly the product of a shared history, the ANC’s incentive to preserve Cosatu’s labour law veto has declined because it can no longer deliver millions of votes.

It may be no accident that laws limiting the right to strike are before Parliament. Whatever the merits of these changes, they do mean that the implied bargain is no longer operating fully because they reduce union bargaining power.

So the question is not whether Cosatu will help the ANC win elections, but whether it still can. The signs suggest it cannot – to its own and the ANC’s cost.

Steven Friedman, Professor of Political Studies, University of Johannesburg

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

ANC STATEMENT ON PETROL PRICE INCREASES - YOU DECIDE

Here is an article "Petrol price increase “indefensible”: ANC" published by Inside-Politics.org during September 2012 regarding some of the ANC statements on petrol increases, unemployment and more. 

“The ill-considered and uncaring decision to increase the petrol price only confirms the NP government does not have the interests of the majority of South Africans, who are poor and struggling desperately to make ends meet, at heart. If the government persists in pressing ahead with these indefensible price hikes, they will be inviting a similar reaction to that when VAT was increased. Now is the time for them to establish the tradition of a government that cares for and consults with its citizens”. [16 September 1993; ANC Statement; “ANC demands suspension of petrol price increase”]

 “The situation is desperate and requires urgent attention from a strong government willing to give strong leadership. The National Party has failed to give this leadership and has led the country into its most severe economic crisis. They have no plan to create jobs and curb unemployment and they will not admit that this is the main cause of the crime and violence which is wrecking our homes, our neighbourhoods and our country. The NP government does not take responsibility and has no plan”. [April 1994; “Speakers notes for election speech on Jobs”]

 “The NP advertises that its record shows it is “fit to govern”. That claim has been finally contradicted from inside the heart of the NP Government itself – witness yesterday’s annual report from the state Auditor General. It catalogues a spending spree, in which the Public Service dissipated taxpayers’ money irregularly:

• State Departments spent R155.7 million during the year on unauthorized transactions.
• The Public Works Department alone spent an unauthorized R 154 million over the past 4 years, and further sums were spent by the SADF and the Departments of Health and of Population.
• The SADF’s R474 million Special Defence Account had “material deficiencies, and fell short of required standards”.

• R31 million allegedly ‘invested in covert projects is now irrecoverable.
So much for the official record of the National Party’s competence in government. It is a record devoid of any sense of responsibility towards the taxpayers, and of total inability to manage matters competently. Our money has been squandered recklessly, mismanaged, misappropriated and misspent. It is time for a change – not just of direction but especially of management!” [8 March 1994; ANC Statement; “Mismanagement of the Nations funds”]

“Privatisation of telecommunications networks in any form is not acceptable to the ANC. We would oppose this privatisation even if it had been conducted openly and the best price secured. The secrecy of this deal leaves a host of unanswered questions in addition to the amount Vodacom paid. Who authorized this sale? Did it go Cabinet? What precedent does it set for future dealings with public assets? The whole process lacks the transparency essential to Government dealings. The precedent now set for cellular mobile phones are deeply disturbing. The Government cannot privatize mobile services and lock South Africa into the World’s most sophisticated telecommunications technology, with a bill in excess of R3,5 billion, when the South African people need schools, housing, water, health services and basic telephones”. [13 September 1993; ANC Statement; “Mobile network giveaway starts privatization process”]

“The Beeld newspaper report that at least 50 people have died in government hospitals apparently because of inadequate trauma facilities makes disturbing reading. Possibly more have died or are in danger. The crisis in health care needs to be addressed urgently, especially during this period of transition. Our public sector services are disorganised, overcrowded, and not able to cope with this crisis. We find it totally unacceptable that a health system that is supposed to be saving lives is not fulfilling this responsibility. Part of the problem is the disorganisation within the public sector. Because of lack of proper planning, patients in need of urgent care are kept waiting for too long. However, the hospital sector cannot be looked at in isolation, as the entire system needs to be reviewed. A strong foundation needs to be built at primary level to reduce the burden on tertiary facilities, and planning must be tailored to meet the needs of all the people of South Africa. It has to be structured with proper consultation with all relevant roleplayers. The ANC calls for a further investigation and urgent action with regard to this crisis. Unless urgent steps are taken now, the entire health system is in danger of collapsing”. [27 August 1993; ANC Statement; “Latest deaths in state hospitals”]

“With this forecast on the impact of Aids in the future, there is no doubt that drastic action must be taken now, to prevent the disastrous implications. Despite these serious consequences, the National Party government spends less per capita on aids than other countries in the world with comparable or lower GNP’s. There must be stronger political commitment during this transition period and in the future to combat this deadly disease”. [1 December 1993; ANC Statement; “World Aids Day”]

“Members of the SAP have to endure terrible working conditions, lack of adequate training and the poor salaries.” [25 August 1993; ANC Statement; “The demands of POPCRU”]

 Source

For more on the petrol price escalation read the story published by BUSINESS INSIDER

South Africa won't become less violent until it's more equal

South African police on patrol in Hout Bay, Cape Town, following requests for more intervention by locals.
EPA-EFE/Nic Bothma

The release of crime statistics in South Africa always triggers great angst among ordinary citizens, and obfuscation on the part of the South African authorities. This year was no exception.

In their latest release of crime statistics, the South African Police Service seem to have tried to downplay crime rate increases (and exaggerate crime rate decreases), by using the wrong population estimates. The police incorrectly used the June 2018 population estimates in their analysis of the 2017/18 crime rates. This is not the first time they have made this kind of bungle.

But their motivation is clear. Applying the correct population estimates suggests that the country saw the biggest per capita annual murder rate increase since 1994. Last year’s figures suggested that the murder rate had stabilised. But these were unfounded, as the murder rate has now risen to 36 per 100,000. The last time it was this high was in 2009. The increase is cause for serious concern.

Even the new minister of police Bheki Cele expressed shock at the numbers, describing South Africa as being close to a “war zone”. He admitted that the country’s police force “dropped the ball”.

South Africa’s annual murder rate per 100,000.
Author supplied

A logical response might be that there is a need for more policing. According to Cele:

We have lost the UN norm of policing which says one policeman to 220 citizens. One police officer is now looking at almost double that.

But this isn’t the answer. A sensible response to South Africa’s rising crime rates would be twofold: a problem-solving approach that would require a close analysis of what’s causing crime to rise in a given area. Then they’d need to devise a plan that takes into account all the contributory factors – and involves everyone affected in addressing it.

And, secondly, the country’s leaders must address inequality. South Africa is a highly unequal society. It has one of the highest gini-co-efficients (a measure of inequality) in the world. Research shows that inequality and crime go hand in hand.

The question of police numbers

Police leaders reported that their staff numbers have gone down by 10,000 since 2010. They argued that they had 62,000 fewer police than were needed.

Police agencies all over the world often claim that, to reduce crime, they need bigger budgets and more officers. But the evidence that these two things automatically lead to more effective crime prevention is far from clear.

Take the issue of police numbers. Short-term and extreme spikes in police numbers (such as in response to terrorist threats) do seem to reduce crime. But a review of a number of studies on the relationship between policing levels and crime rates suggested that the impact of more police is generally small. The paper also noted that part of the problem was that there have been few rigorous experiments on, for example, extra police resources being allocated randomly.

Bigger budgets also have mixed outcomes. This is because, very often, a significant proportion of spending on police is ineffectual. Police resources often aren’t targeted, even though there’s evidence that doing so produces good results.

This isn’t hard to do: crime is highly concentrated in hot spots that are often surprisingly small and quite stable over time. With the right focus, resources could be directed to these areas. But mostly they aren’t.

Targeted approach

What works best is a problem-solving approach. This involves focusing narrowly on understanding specific crime problems in specific places, and using not only police but drawing on the knowledge and resources of all parties, including other government departments and local communities.

For example, particular factors might be contributing to a spike in robberies in a particular area. These could include a large cohort of bored young people in the community, paths that are fertile ground for attacks because they are dark and overgrown, or unlit parks near a derelict building.

More police patrols wouldn’t necessarily be the best solution. The underlying problems would need to be addressed. This might include creating a partnership between property owners, the agencies in charge of parks and lighting administration, schools and parents, and the communities that use the spaces.

One concern with a targeted approach is that crime is simply pushed elsewhere. But evidence suggests that the displacement effect is usually limited and that, in fact, nearby areas often enjoy a diffusion of benefits.

Inequality

There’s a more fundamental problem that needs to be solved on a national scale before South Africa’s crime levels can be reduced: inequality.

Research shows that inequality is arguably the single best predictor of whether a country will experience high or low levels of crime and violence. Inequality

• makes property crime more attractive and profitable;
• drives frustration, hostility and hopelessness; and,
• undermines trust, community engagement and the functioning of social and institutional structures.

South Africa is one of the most unequal countries in the world.

Where to from here

Murder levels nationally have been at about this level or higher (above 30 per 100,000, which is considered very high by global standards) since at least the 1970s. High levels of violence are not a matter of police resources. They are a structural feature of this society.

This is not to say that the police are blameless. Among other things they should be doing more to solve cases. But addressing the key drivers of crime and violence requires that South Africa builds a much larger social partnership. It has no hope of becoming a fundamentally less violent country until it becomes a more equal one.

Anine Kriegler, Researcher and Doctoral Candidate in Criminology, University of Cape Town

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

South Africans come off second best as politicians play havoc with coalitions

EPA-EFE/Nic Bothma

For the past two years political party coalitions have become the “new normal” in South African politics. They became a key feature in 2016 after the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), wrested power from the governing African National Congress (ANC) by forming coalitions in three key metropolitan – Nelson Mandela Bay, Tshwane and Johannesburg.

But the coalitions have proven to be volatile and unstable, most notably in Nelson Mandela Bay. The metropolitan municipality council has found it difficult to pass budgets, approve and agree on a long-term strategic development plan for the city.

After a series of crises, the coalition which had been cobbled together between the DA and three smaller parties finally collapsed in August. Another motion of no confidence – the fifth in two years – was tabled against the DA’s executive mayor Athol Trollip. A slim majority of councillors voted in favour and he was ousted. Trollip has challenged the decision in court. For now the city has a mayor from the United Democratic Movement which has 2% of the vote in the council.

The coalition in South Africa’s second largest city Tshwane is also on shaky ground. The executive mayor Solly Msimanga, also from the DA, faced a motion of no confidence a mere three days after Trollip was ousted. But Msimanga survived to fight another day due to a technical glitch in the voting procedures.

The coalition in Johannesburg seems to be holding – for now.

But the troubles in Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane are raising real concerns that the political chess games are affecting accountability, governance stability and service delivery in the cities.

This is a serious state of affairs. If political parties can’t work together, passing resolutions and agreeing on developmental priorities becomes difficult. Once governance stagnates, a municipality cannot function effectively. This in turn affects its ability to provide services. When councils become political theatres, ordinary citizens suffer. This much has been evident in Nelson Mandela Bay.

Political expediency

Coalitions are usually formed on the basis of political expediency. The political marriages of convenience come about when political parties can’t get an outright majority. To secure power, parties scramble to find partners, at times without considering ideological, policy, or historical differences. As African political and governance scholar W. O. Oyugi cited by African human rights expert Dr Japheth Biegnon has noted:

coalitions are a necessary evil – an evil in the sense that normally no party ever coalesces except in circumstances in which not to do so would deprive it of a chance to exercise power

This certainly holds true for the coalitions formed in South Africa since 2016. The cooperation forged among opposition parties was designed solely to get the ANC out of power.

What emerged were uncomfortable coalition governments led by the DA. It promised to root out corruption and improve the delivery of basic services, such as water and electricity, to communities. But it lacked the required majority to govern on its own so turned to building coalitions.

It partnered with a number of smaller parties. One of them, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), helped the DA take over governments in Nelson Mandela Bay, Tshwane and Johannesburg.

The EFF, acutely aware of the power it wields in all these arrangements, has used the fragile political situation at local government level for its own political agenda. This has included promoting its radical stance on land expropriation and nationalisation with an eye on improving its performance in next year’s elections.

The EFF declined to formally join any coalition government, but effectively holds the position of political kingmaker, especially in hung councils.

Both the DA and the ANC realise that, potentially, they might need to work with the EFF in future. It is therefore not surprising that following the Tshwane motion of no confidence, Msimanga announced he would “reach out” to the EFF.

Lessons for the future

There are two key lessons that political parties should take away from the current political turmoil if they want to bring about a semblance of bureaucratic stability.

Firstly, using local coalition politics to advance political agendas can severely hamper service delivery. Secondly, this undermines public trust in local government, creating fertile ground for political unrest.

Political parties will need to heed these lessons to ensure effective governance and political stability in the country. This is particularly important in view of the 2019 national and provincial elections, which are expected to result in even more coalition governments.

If they don’t, ordinary citizens will suffer while politicians engage in a game of chess to secure power. As it is,
South Africans are increasingly dissatisfied with democracy. This is due to a number of factors, including poor service delivery and a lack of societal trust in government.

Ultimately, coalitions need to work for the citizenry, and not politicians.

The author’s has just published a new book, Delivering an Elusive Dream of Democracy: Lessons from Nelson Mandela Bay.

Joleen Steyn Kotze, Senior Research Specialist in Democracy, Governance and Service Delivery at the Human Science Research Council and a Research Fellow Centre for African Studies, University of the Free State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Xenophobia in South Africa: why it's time to unsettle narratives about migrants

Four people died in the latest violence and looting to hit shops owned by foreign nationals in Soweto, Johannesburg.
Sowetan/Thulani Mbele

Foreign nationals have, yet again, been attacked, displaced and had their shops looted in South Africa. This is an unfortunate – but entirely unsurprising – way to mark the anniversary of the 2008 xenophobic attacks during which tens of thousands were displaced and more than 60 people killed.

Even before 2008, a handful of scholars and activists were urging the government to do more to protect those targeted for violence because of their geographic origins. Only after the 2008 melee did the government join civil society and international organisations in committing to ensure that such bloodletting would never happen again. But, it has.

Why? Firstly, both the government and civil society are culpable. The government continues to sideline xenophobic violence the same way it does most violence affecting poor South African communities. It has naturalised anti-outsider violence by blaming it variously on criminality or the natural resentment poor South Africans feel towards those they perceive as “stealing” opportunities from them.

Civil society efforts have fared little better in arresting the violence. Many organisation, foreign and domestic, have responded in a classic “garbage-can” fashion, matching ready-made solutions to problems they only poorly understand. The results include innumerable marches, education campaigns, rights awareness symposiums, and social cohesion summits. Various bodies, including the one I work for, regularly document the abuse of migrants at the hands of police, authorities and neighbours.

The solution doesn’t lie in simply doing more of the same. What’s required is to recalibrate how xenophobia is covered, particularly how stories are told about migrants – their rights, suffering, and their relationship to the citizens around them. The way it’s currently done is doing more harm than good.

South African coverage of migrants falls into what the president of the global Ethical Journalism Network, Aidan White, recently noted was a trend towards “victim journalism” in global migration coverage.

But changing course means going against the grain of the dominant narratives. It means destabilising the language and approaches used to speak about violence and immigration. This is as true in South Africa as it is elsewhere in the world.

When one does this, as Tanya Pampalone and I have tried to do in the book I Want to Go Home Forever: Stories of Becoming and Belonging in Africa’s Great Metropolis. the stories are often difficult to digest. They are uncomfortable because they upset easy binaries and accusations. They also point to new opportunities to build communities that are inclusive and safe.

Victim journalism

The accounts of migrants described in White’s article are very recognisable in South Africa. Many of the accounts offered by South African civil society and scholars rapidly descend into a parade of miseries and indignities. As if the more people suffer, the more deserving they are of not only sympathy, but a place in a hosting country. It’s as if the only way one is allowed to stay is if you completely deserve pity.

Miriam Ticktin, a leading migration scholar, similarly observes how migrants need to ensure they are read as helpless, needy and innocent to secure access to protection and help. While such claims may get you “in”, they also feed perceptions that migrants are wards, stealing resources.

The problem of focusing on migrants’ rights and victimisation is that it does little to hold the political and criminal elements leading – and benefiting – from the violence against migrants responsible. It also prevents empathy from citizens grappling with the competition for scarce resources such as houses, or for jobs, as well as the ethical dilemmas of migration. Migration is a complex process that by its nature transforms communities. It introduces new languages and customs. It creates new forms of economic and social exchange. These can be unsettling and disorienting, especially during times of economic hardship and political transition.

Framing xenophobic violence as a question of immigrant victimisation invites divisions between neighbours. There are multiple examples, such as accounts of immigrants as somehow superhuman people who have suffered violence and persecution across a smorgasbord of sites, yet heroically continue commerce to feed their families.

Journalists and scholars overlook or suppress unsavoury elements of migrants’ histories and activities. This is often for fear of feeding anti-immigrant reactions. Perhaps more importantly, migrant-oriented journalists and activities too quickly condemn South Africans as thoughtless purveyors of violence.

Both sides become caricatures, people without politics or the complexities that are inherent to all humans.

Humanising migration

It’s true: there are many stories of victimisation. But there are a host of other accounts that reflect a complexity often ignored in the simple narratives.

There are the geriatric refugees from Ethiopia who fear reprisals for political actions taken decades ago. There are conflicts among immigrant families far more vicious than anything South Africans are offering. There are immigrants who make court cases against them disappear.

There are also thoughtful, patriotic South Africans convinced xenophobia is socially just. For them, overcoming apartheid’s legacy means redirecting resources and opportunities to the citizens who most suffered from it. For them, sharing the country’s wealth and urban space with “others” can only frustrate a transformation agenda that has been too slow to bear fruit.

There are also stories – seldom told – that can salve and offer direction. They remind those willing to listen that while immigrants live in almost all South African townships, violence against them is remarkably infrequent. It’s not random or driven solely by rage, but calculated, purposeful, and directed.

What is more, there are poor, black South Africans who know that foreigners are not the problem. They are perfectly aware that foreigners aren’t the reason they are jobless, homeless, and frightened to walk the streets. Better than most, they know that it is officials’ false promises and unwillingness to counter corruption, violence, incompetence and institutional incapacity that are to blame.

These are problems with no easy solutions. Yet that is precisely the message that scholars, activists, and concerned citizens need to hear.

Loren B Landau, Research Chair on Mobility & the Politics of Diversity. Migration; Urbanisation; Refugees; Xenophobia, University of the Witwatersrand

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.